OVERVIEW: According to the Philippine Atmospheric Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA), NORU (local name: Karding) intensifies into a Severe Tropical Storm (STS) while moving west southwestward.
LOCATION: The centre of STS NORU (Karding) was estimated based on all available data at 660 km East Southeast of Tuguegarao City, Cagayan Cagayan or 595 km East of Casiguran, Aurora, the Philippines.
INTENSITY: Maximum sustained winds of 100 km/h near the center, gustiness of up to 125 km/h and central pressure of 990 hPa. Strong to storm-force winds extend outwards up to 250 km from the centre.
STS NORU (Karding) is forecast to track generally west southwestward or westward while gradually accelerating towards the east coast of Aurora or Isabela, the Philippines, where it is likely to make landfall on 25 Sep morning or afternoon. After crossing Central or Northern Luzon, NORU is forecast to emerge over the West Philippine Sea tomorrow late evening or Monday early morning. NORU will then continue tracking westward over the West Philippine Sea for the remainder of the forecast period.
STS NORU (Karding) is forecast to intensify into a typhoon prior to landfall over Central or Northern Luzon, the Philippines. While it is likely for NORU to slightly weaken due to land interaction during its traverse over Northern and Central Luzon, it is highly likely that NORU will remain a typhoon while crossing the Philippines landmass. o According to the ASEAN DMRS, NORU is expected to make landfall as a Category 1 hurricane (very dangerous winds will produce some damage) with sustained winds of about 139 km/h (Saffir-Simpson Scale).
TROPICAL CYCLONE WIND SIGNAL (TCWS):
TCWS no. 2 (minor to moderate threat to life and property): The southeastern portion of Isabela, the northern portion of Aurora, and Pollilo Islands, the Philippines. TCWS no. 1 also hoisted in Luzon of the Philippines (full list from PAGASA).
Per latest track and intensity forecast, the most likely highest wind signal that will be hoisted in the Philippines is TCWS No. 4 (significant to severe threat to life and property).
At most heavy to intense with at times torrential rains especially over areas under TCWS no. 2.
Severe winds (gale-force in strength) especially in areas where TCWS no. 2 is hoisted throughout the passage of NORU.
Under these conditions and considering the significant antecedent rainfall, scattered to widespread flooding and rain-induced landslides especially in areas that are highly or very highly susceptible to these hazards.
Lao PDR, Thailand, and Viet Nam
NORU is expected to make landfall over Central Region of Viet Nam during 27 – 28 Sep 2022.
According to ASEAN Disaster Monitoring and Response System (DMRS) at most widespread damage (estimated wind impacts) and 229 mm of tropical cyclone rainfall are possible in Central Region of Viet Nam.
Heavy to very heavy rains caused by NORU are also possible in the southern parts of Lao PDR and the North and Northeast Region of Thailand during 27 – 29 Sep 2022.
EXPOSURE: According to the ASEAN Disaster Monitoring and Response System (DMRS), an estimated 7.61 Million people, 1.81 Million households, and $39.6 Billion (USD) of infrastructure (total replacement cost) are potentially exposed to moderate to severe damaging winds.
PREPAREDNESS AND RESPONSE:
The Philippines NDRRMC Alert Status are now on Red Alert (highest level of alert to address an ongoing or in anticipation of an imminent emergency situation). The National Steering Committee for Disaster Prevention and Control of Viet Nam has dispatch a letter No. 29/CD-QG dated September 24, 2022 to response the potential impacts of NORU especially in Quang Ninh to Binh Thuan and Than Hoa to Quang Ngai Province (VNDMA).
National Meteorological and Hydrological Services (NMHS) in the Philippines, Thailand, and Viet Nam has release a tropical cyclone warning/advisories for NORU.
The AHA Centre will continue to monitor and issue necessary updates.
Source: ASEAN Coordinating Centre for Humanitarian Assistance