Bangkok: Kasikorn Research Center reports that the Thai baht fluctuated within a range, and the Thai stock index rose from the previous week. Next week, the baht is expected to trade within a range of 31.00-31.70 baht per dollar. The Thai stock index has support levels at 1,260 and 1,250 points, and resistance levels at 1,285 and 1,300 points. The market is watching foreign fund flows, Asian currencies, global gold prices, and Q4/2025 corporate earnings.
According to Thai News Agency, during the week of January 12-16, 2025, the Thai baht fluctuated within a relatively limited range of 31.20-31.55 throughout the week. The baht strengthened at the beginning of the week, in line with the global gold price, which reached a record high, while the US dollar faced pressure amid concerns about the independence of the US Federal Reserve (Fed). However, the baht weakened in the middle of the week as the market interpreted signals from the Bank of Thailand governor as dovish, reflecting the possibility of interest rate cuts in Thailand this year. Furthermore, the weakening of the baht was consistent with the trend of other Asian currencies. In addition, selling pressure on the dollar partially subsided after news reports that central bank governors worldwide had issued statements supporting Jerome Powell.
The Thai baht gradually strengthened again during the remainder of the week, while the US dollar faced selling pressure due to technical factors after the USD/THB failed to break through the 31.50 baht per dollar level. In addition, the Japanese yen recovered somewhat after Japanese authorities signaled that they might intervene to curb its depreciation.
On Friday, January 16, 2026, the Thai baht closed at 31.39 baht per dollar in the domestic market, compared to 31.43 baht per dollar on the previous Friday (January 9). Regarding foreign investor portfolios between January 12-16, 2026, foreign investors were net buyers of Thai stocks totaling 7,576.7 million baht and had net inflows into the Thai bond market of 820.8 million baht (net purchases of bonds of 821.0 million baht, minus maturing debt instruments of 0.2 million baht).
For the week of January 19-23, 2026, Kasikorn Bank forecasts the Thai baht to trade within a range of 31.00-31.70 baht per dollar. Meanwhile, Kasikorn Research Center assesses key factors to monitor include foreign fund flows, movements of Asian currencies, and global gold prices.
Key US economic figures include Q3 2025 GDP, October-November PCE/Core PCE price index, December pending home sales, preliminary January consumer confidence and PMI indices, and weekly jobless claims. The market is also awaiting the results of the BOJ meeting (January 22-23), China’s LPR rate setting, December inflation figures for the Eurozone and the UK, and Chinese economic data such as Q4 2025 GDP, industrial production, retail sales, and December fixed asset investment.
The Thai stock index (SET Index) declined at the beginning of the week due to a lack of new catalysts and selling pressure from domestic institutional investors, led by hospital stocks, amid concerns about major insurance companies discontinuing the sale of comprehensive health insurance plans. Profit-taking in individual stocks in the retail and electronics sectors also contributed to the negative pressure on the Thai stock market.
However, the Thai stock index gradually recovered since mid-week, driven by buying from foreign investors, led by energy stocks that benefited from rising global oil prices due to tensions in Iran, as well as finance and banking stocks in anticipation of reporting their Q4 2025 earnings.
On Friday, January 16, 2026, the SET index closed at 1,275.60 points, up 1.72% from the end of the previous week, while the average daily trading volume was 40,148.11 million baht, down 1.11% from the previous week. The mai index fell 0.96% to close at 212.83 points.
For the following week (January 19-23, 2026), Kasikorn Securities Co., Ltd. forecasts that the Thai stock index will have support levels at 1,260 and 1,250 points, while resistance levels are at 1,285 and 1,300 points, respectively. Kasikorn Research Center assesses key factors to monitor include the Q4 2025 earnings reports of Thai listed companies and the direction of foreign capital flows. Important US economic data includes the preliminary January manufacturing and services PMI indices, October-November personal income and spending figures, Q3 2025 GDP figures, and weekly jobless claims.
Meanwhile, other international economic factors include the BOJ meeting, Q4 2025 GDP figures, and December economic data from China, such as industrial production, retail sales, and fixed asset investment; the December consumer price index for the Eurozone and Japan; and the preliminary January manufacturing and services PMI indices for Japan, the Eurozone, and the UK.