Bangkok: Academics believe that if the government accelerates economic stimulus, we will definitely see GDP growth of 3%.
According to Thai News Agency, academics assert that a swiftly formed government, coupled with decisive economic plans, could propel Thailand’s GDP to a growth rate of 3% within the next two years. They emphasize the importance of finalizing Free Trade Agreements (FTAs) with significant trading partners like the European Union while maintaining fiscal discipline to achieve this target.
Kiatanan Luangkaew, a lecturer at the Faculty of Economics, Thammasat University, expressed confidence that if the anticipated cabinet lineup, particularly the economic ministers, remains intact, Thailand’s GDP growth could surpass 3% within the specified timeframe. This optimism is rooted in the government’s strength, bolstered by competent ministers and the Bhumjaithai Party’s control over key economic ministries, ensuring a coordinated and robust economic development strategy.
Luangkaew also highlighted the necessity of including the Ministry of Higher Education, Science, Research and Innovation (MHESI) in the economic team to foster knowledge and innovation. This inclusion would support sustained GDP growth and address the need for economic restructuring. He argued that the Bhumjaithai Party’s current control of the Ministries of Finance, Commerce, Agriculture, and Foreign Affairs is insufficient for long-term economic propulsion. By aligning these ministries within 2-3 years, significant improvements in economic indicators are anticipated.
Investment in quality projects and facilitating technology transfer are crucial for upgrading Thai exports to high-value products. The government must also promote equitable income distribution nationwide and ensure domestic businesses benefit from technological advancements.
Peera Charoenporn, Dean of the Faculty of Economics at Thammasat University, noted that the National Economic and Social Development Council’s (NESDC) GDP growth projection of 2.4% for 2025 signifies a positive economic trajectory. However, he cautioned that the economy is still below its potential growth rate compared to regional counterparts. While government initiatives like Thailand Fastpass and the co-payment scheme reflect positive policy directions, the key drivers for growth remain government spending and FTA negotiations. The new government must prioritize FTAs with the EU and other regional partners within the next two years to bolster economic growth.
Charoenporn expressed optimism that Thailand’s GDP could grow beyond 3% by 2026, stressing the importance of instilling confidence in both domestic and foreign investors. This confidence can be achieved through stimulating investment, negotiating FTAs, and maintaining fiscal discipline.
He reassured that the delay in forming a new government is unlikely to significantly impact the economy in 2026, as the current administration, led by the Bhumjaithai Party, is already preparing economic stimulus packages. Charoenporn downplayed the potential impact of the Thai-Cambodian conflict, advocating for trade engagement over avoidance. He emphasized that reopening border trade would benefit the Thai economy, given its trade surplus with Cambodia, and warned against letting nationalism obstruct economic opportunities.