Bangkok: The National Economic and Social Development Council (NESDC) has revised its GDP growth target for 2026 to 2%, down from the previously forecasted 2.4% for 2025. This adjustment comes as attention turns to the new government's strategies for economic revival.
According to Thai News Agency, Mr. Danucha Pichayanant, the Secretary-General of the NESDC, announced the economic forecast for Thailand in 2025. The GDP growth of 2.5% in the fourth quarter was largely driven by exports, which saw a 5.6% increase, construction growth at 11.2%, and the early fiscal year 2025 government spending on training budgets of 157 billion baht. The unemployment rate during this period was recorded at 0.71%, a decrease from the previous year's 0.88%, contributing to the anticipated 2.4% GDP growth for 2025, bolstered by positive trends in exports and tourism.
As the political landscape shifts with preparations for a new government, current Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul is engaged in coalition talks with the Pheu Thai Party and other smaller parties. The aim is to implement swift economic stimulus measures and prepare the 2027 budget. Should the government formation occur between March and April 2026, following the Election Commission's certification of election results, the budget preparation process would face a delay of only two months, with budget deployment expected in October-November 2026.
The NESDC has also adjusted its 2026 GDP forecast from an initial 1.7% to 2%, and revised its prediction of a -0.3% contraction in exports to a 1.7% expansion. These projections are contingent upon several assumptions, including government support for domestic components, progress in US import tariff negotiations, a current account surplus of 2.4%, inflation containment at 0.2%, and a global economic growth rate of 3%. Additionally, the NESDC anticipates 35 million foreign tourists visiting Thailand, generating 1.65 trillion baht in revenue, up from 33 million tourists and 1.47 trillion baht in 2025.
Despite these projections, the Thai economy faces several challenges. Global trade volatility, high household debt, low bank lending-particularly for auto loans and SMEs-and rising non-performing loans (NPLs) present significant hurdles. Severe weather conditions, leading to potential floods and droughts, could further strain government relief efforts. The European Union's new CBAM regulations also necessitate adaptation by the private sector, requiring carbon credit purchases. Maintaining fiscal discipline is vital as it influences global credit rating agencies' assessments of Thailand's creditworthiness, thus impacting the country's economic strategies.