Bangkok: Extremely hot weather and an earlier-than-expected El Ni±o event are expected to bring a long dry spell from March to May, lasting until early 2027. Associate Professor Dr. Wisanu Attavanich, an expert in agricultural economics and climate, revealed the latest update on the flood and drought situation on February 16, 2026. He stated that Thailand has now entered the middle phase of the weather pattern and is about to transition into a full "El Ni±o" phenomenon in May 2026, which is earlier than originally predicted. This phenomenon will continue until at least February 2027 and may reach its peak intensity in November of this year.
According to Thai News Agency, of concern is the nationwide trend of consistently above-average temperatures from March to August 2026, particularly during the summer months of March to May. People must prepare for extreme heat, with the southern and lower eastern regions being more affected by the heat signals than other areas. This will lead to a surge in water demand and increased health risks from heatwaves.
Regarding the overall rainfall situation, data from leading meteorological agencies worldwide indicates that this year's rainy season may arrive later than usual. From May to July, the southern, upper northern, and parts of the northeastern regions may experience more pronounced dry spells. However, from June to August, the western and lower northern regions, particularly Tak, Kamphaeng Phet, Nakhon Sawan, Uthai Thani, Suphan Buri, and Kanchanaburi provinces, should be wary of potentially higher-than-average rainfall, a characteristic of the volatile weather patterns in this era of global turmoil.
Associate Professor Dr. Wisanu emphasized that although the forecast for February to April indicates rainfall levels close to normal and not as severe as last year, the public and farmers should not be complacent. They should start planning water management in advance until next year and closely monitor updated weather forecasts, as newer data is more accurate, in order to adapt to climate fluctuations in a timely manner.