Bangkok: Thailand's recent move to open diplomatic relations with Myanmar has been critically analyzed by experts as a test of trust with uncertain assurances. A notable academic from Thammasat University has raised concerns regarding the implications of Thailand's approach toward Myanmar's military government, suggesting that the Thai government should clearly define the limits of this newly-formed friendship.
According to Thai News Agency, Associate Professor Dr. M.L. Pinitphan Paribatra, a lecturer in International Relations at Thammasat University, highlighted that Thailand's engagement with Myanmar represents a trial of trust based on weak assurances. The policy aims to position Thailand as a reliable ally to Myanmar, despite facing criticism and risks both domestically and internationally. The academic emphasized the necessity for Myanmar to meet expectations set by Thailand.
The professor questioned the extent of expectations Thailand can realistically hold from Myanmar's military government, citing historical relations and the self-regulating nature of Myanmar's politics. Previous attempts to influence Myanmar's internal political processes externally have often proven ineffective.
Dr. Pinitphan observed that while addressing issues like scams could be feasible through existing cooperation, more complex problems such as violence and pollution are unlikely to be resolved swiftly. These challenges are compounded by factors like ethnic minority dynamics, and without initiating a peace process, effective solutions remain elusive.
He noted that Thailand's timing for engaging with Myanmar could be strategic, with Thailand set to chair ASEAN in 2028. Facilitating Myanmar's reintegration into ASEAN could be advantageous for Thailand. Moreover, Myanmar's leader, Min Aung Hlaing's recent presidency and his relationships with China and India, provide further impetus for Thailand's engagement.
However, despite Thailand's assurances of detaching hospitality from governmental legitimacy, inviting Min Aung Hlaing has drawn criticism due to Myanmar's international standing and ongoing human rights issues. Nonetheless, Dr. Pinitphan argued that Thailand's foreign relations and policy are unlikely to be significantly impacted, given its historical interactions with Myanmar's military regimes.
The academic also highlighted potential repercussions for Thailand, particularly if international sanctions intensify due to actions against Myanmar's leadership. He urged Thailand to clearly outline its demands to Myanmar, including political and cross-border issues, to ensure genuine progress in peace efforts.
Dr. Pinitphan concluded that Thailand should prepare to reassess its policy if Myanmar fails to demonstrate internal change through the friendly policy. The international community, he argued, expects Thailand to set clear conditions and not leave the peace process solely to Myanmar's discretion.