Bangkok: Dr. Anusorn points out that Trump's "protectionism" has stumbled. Dr. Anusorn Thammajai, former Dean of the Faculty of Economics at the University of Thai Chamber of Commerce, highlighted that the Trump administration's "protectionism" and "economic nationalism" have faltered, positively impacting the global economy, trade, and financial markets. He anticipates a new 10% tariff, expecting a positive response from global stock markets. He also monitors the weakening US dollar, which could lead to a stronger Thai baht.
According to Thai News Agency, the checks and balances power of the US Supreme Court have halted the "protectionism" and "economic nationalism" of the Trump administration, but it has not been able to change the direction of the Trump administration's trade and economic policies. The neomerchantment and America First concepts remain the core of the policy, even after the Supreme Court's 6-3 majority ruling overturned the Trump administration's import tariffs under the IEEPA law.
The US Supreme Court's decision will be a crucial turning point for the global economy and the world trading system this year. In the longer term, it will have a positive impact on Asian economies, including Thailand. Export growth this year is expected to be better than previously forecast, potentially showing positive growth instead of negative due to a high base in the previous year. However, the growth of Thai exports may be limited by temporary factors in 2025, such as front-loading of imports and exports, boosting demand for Thai agricultural products and food.
Dr. Anusorn further stated that the suspension of Trump's tariffs would cause the US dollar to weaken, and the Thai baht would continue to strengthen. Specifically, the United States may face an increased trade deficit and will need to find additional funds to compensate for the budget deficit from the loss of customs revenue. This would be a significant fiscal burden for the Trump administration. He anticipates a positive response from global stock markets, but this positive response will be cautious due to the uncertainty surrounding what further trade barriers and import tariffs the Trump administration might impose. Businesses importing from the US are expected to receive rebates of approximately $129-133 billion.
However, a major risk is that the Trump administration may find other legal avenues to impose import tariffs. Such actions would create greater uncertainty in the global trading system. But using other channels to raise import tariffs is a time-consuming process, and the exercise of tariff power requires congressional approval. The complex and uncertain impact of the latest 10% tariff increase from the Trump administration on the trade sector must be assessed.
The Thai government must closely monitor changes in U.S. trade policy to formulate proactive countermeasures. Trade policies should prioritize the creation of new industrial bases to generate new revenue streams and explore new markets. This includes developing capabilities to expand and maintain trade interests, improving information systems and early warning systems for trade, forecasting, setting targets, and seeking trade opportunities, expanding and maintaining global market share, and developing trade services linked to manufacturing industries. A unified trade negotiating organization should be established to handle negotiations at multilateral, bilateral, and regional levels. Furthermore, Thailand must be developed into a regional trade and investment hub.