SCB EIC cuts the forecast for the value of Thai product exports in 2023 to -1.5%, even though the export value in August 2023 expanded for the first time in 11 months. It is expected that in 2024, Thai exports will turn around. Expanded 3.5% due to the global economy continuing to expand. Supply chain problems resolved Trend of oil-agricultural products prices moving up
Center for Economic and Business Research Siam Commercial Bank (SCB EIC) revealed that the value of Thai merchandise exports in August 2023 was 24,279.6 million US dollars. Returned to expand by 2.6%YOY after continuous severe contraction. And this is the first expansion in 11 months. Overall for 2023, export value in the first 8 months was 187,593.1 million US dollars, shrinking -4.5%, with exports in August returning to expand. This is partly a result of (1) higher export product prices, (2) high base factors starting to decrease, and (3) special factors from the delivery of special-use automotive products from Thailand to the United States, which SCB EIC initially assessed that This special purpose vehicle is a maneuver tool. As a result, the growth rate of Thai export value is higher than normal by approximately 2. 9 percentage point. However, if we deduct the impact from exports of products that do not truly reflect Thailand's export conditions, such as gold, weapons and vehicles for special use. It was found that Thai exports still expanded slightly at 0.7%, but if seasonal effects were deducted, it was found that exports expanded by as much as 5.4%MOM_sa compared to the previous month. Reflecting the trend of good expansion this month. Even excluding temporary support factors and technical factors.
Overall exports by product in August improved in many product groups (1) Agricultural products returned to expand for the first time in 4 months at 4.2%, with fresh, chilled, frozen and dried fruits and Rice is two agricultural product groups that export well, partly as a result of agricultural product prices expanding the highest in more than 2 years at 6.6% due to the impact of drought situations in many areas around the world. Including India's rice export policy. (2) Industrial goods returned to expand by 2.5% after contracting for 2 consecutive months, partly due to the movement of special-use vehicles out of the country. In addition to this special factor Export of electrical circuit boards Semiconductors, transistors and diodes, transformers and components, automobiles, equipment and components. and air conditioners and components are export industrial products that expanded well this month (3) mineral and fuel products returned to expand 22. 2% after the previous strong contraction This is partly a result of price factors shrinking at a slower rate, while (4) agricultural industrial products continued to contract at -7.6%, improved from -11.8% in the previous month, partly as a result of prices of industrial products. Agriculture expanded slightly at 2.5%.
Exports have returned to expand in many important markets, including China, which is still volatile. But it still expanded by 1.9% this month due to exports of fresh, chilled, frozen and dried fruits that expanded by 119.5%. The trade balance was in a slight surplus due to the special factor of the movement of goods in the special-purpose vehicle group from Thailand to USA However, exports will tend to improve accordingly. And it will expand clearly at the end of the year from the global economy that will expand better in the 4th quarter and low base factors. In addition, there is support from the factor of increased export prices. The expansion at the end of the year will not be able to compensate for the severe contraction during the first 7 months of the year. Therefore, SCB EIC has adjusted its outlook for the value of merchandise exports in 2023 to contract -1.5% (USD BOP), reduced from before. expected to expand by 0.5%
As for 2024, Thai exports are likely to return to expand by 3.5% from world trade volume in 2024 expected to expand better than 2023, including the world economy in 2024 expected to continue expanding close to 2023. at 2.3%, especially in the manufacturing sector which is expected to gradually improve from this year, supply chain problems are resolved and transportation costs are reduced back to normal levels, oil prices are likely to increase due to the global economy in 2020. It is likely to expand similar to this year, along with the OPEC+ group extending the time to reduce production. As a result, the price of export products related to oil has increased. and policies to limit agricultural exports from certain countries that will cause agricultural product prices to increase. For example, India's rice export control policy has contributed to increasing world rice prices.
However, Thailand's export outlook still has pressure factors, including tighter monetary policy than expected in developed countries, causing the economies of its main trading partners to slow down, and the Chinese economy expanding more slowly. This is partly due to structural problems that may take time to recover. It will affect some Thai export products that are highly dependent on the Chinese market. and is part of the Chinese supply chain, especially rubber, rubber wood, petrochemicals, computers and components. and car parts and drought in many areas around the world, including Thailand The amount of rain during the first 8 months of this year reached the lowest level in 41 years in many areas of Thailand, causing the amount of Thai agricultural production to decrease in many groups due to the amount of damaged crops. especially sugarcane rice and palm oil
Source: Thai News Agency