Bangkok: Next week, financial markets will closely monitor inflation data from Thailand and the United States, with the Thai baht projected to fluctuate between 32.70 and 33.40 baht per US dollar.
According to Thai News Agency, Kasikorn Research Center (KRC) forecasts that market attention will be focused on key economic indicators, Federal Reserve statements, foreign capital flows, and geopolitical developments in the Middle East. The Thai stock market is anticipated to maintain its upward trajectory, with support levels estimated at 1,585-1,570 points and resistance levels at 1,625-1,645 points.
Kasikorn Research Center reported a strengthening of the Thai baht over the past week, closing at 33.14 baht per US dollar on July 3, 2026. This appreciation was attributed to market speculations that the US Federal Reserve may delay interest rate hikes due to slowing inflation and lower-than-expected US non-farm payroll figures, resulting in selling pressure on the dollar. Additionally, rising gold prices bolstered the baht. Despite challenges from a stronger dollar and weakening Asian currencies, including the yen at its weakest in 40 years, foreign capital flows remained robust, with net purchases of Thai stocks totaling 26,095 million baht and net inflows into Thai bonds reaching 11,220 million baht.
For the upcoming week of July 6-10, 2026, Kasikorn Bank predicts that the Thai baht will trade within the 32.70-33.40 baht range. KRC emphasizes the importance of monitoring Thailand's June inflation figures, foreign fund flows, Middle East developments, and Federal Reserve statements. US economic data of interest includes the ISM/PMI services index, June existing home sales, weekly jobless claims, and the minutes from the June 16-17 Fed meeting. Additionally, markets are awaiting June CPI and PPI data from China and Japan.
Last week, the Thai stock market index experienced growth, fueled by foreign investor purchases, particularly in the SET50 index and the electronics sector. Speculation on Q2 2026 earnings also spurred buying in the banking sector. Despite concerns over Middle Eastern tensions, market support was derived from expectations that the US Federal Reserve might delay interest rate hikes. This optimism pushed the SET index to a 3-year and 4-month high of 1,621.19 points, closing at 1,611.28 points on July 3, 2026, reflecting a 4.47% increase from the previous week. Average daily trading volume rose by 2.33% to 80,182.25 million baht, and the mai index closed at 221.11 points, up 0.38%.
Looking ahead to this week (July 6-10, 2026), Kasikorn Securities Co., Ltd. projects that the Thai stock index will find support at 1,585 and 1,570 points, with resistance at 1,625 and 1,645 points. Key factors to watch include Thailand's June Consumer Price Index (CPI), Middle Eastern geopolitical developments, and foreign capital flow trends. Significant US economic data involves the June ISM/PMI services index, existing home sales, Federal Reserve meeting minutes, and weekly jobless claims. Other critical international economic factors include the Eurozone's May PPI and retail sales, China's June CPI and PPI, and Japan's June PPI.