Bangkok: Next week, financial analysts and investors are closely monitoring Thai export figures and potential US-Iran trade negotiations as key influencers on the Thai baht and stock market movements.
According to Thai News Agency, the Kasikorn Research Center indicated that the Thai baht slightly strengthened last week, while Thai stocks faced selling pressure from foreign investors. The Kasikorn Research Center predicts that the baht will trade between 31.60-32.60 baht per US dollar next week. Attention is also on Thailand's March export figures, US-Iran negotiations, global oil prices, and foreign fund flows. The Thai stock market is expected to find support at 1,470-1,450 points and resistance at 1,495-1,510 points.
Last week, the baht gained strength in offshore markets during the Songkran holiday, aligning with a trend among Asian currencies against the US dollar. This was driven by expectations of resumed US-Iran negotiations. The baht reached its strongest level in over a month at 31.86 baht per dollar, before weakening slightly towards the end of the week. Despite a temporary ceasefire agreement in the Middle East, markets awaited clarity on US-Iran talks, while positive US economic data supported the dollar's recovery. The baht closed at 32.08 baht per dollar, amidst net selling of Thai stocks by foreign investors but with a small net inflow into the Thai bond market.
For the upcoming week of April 20-24, 2026, Kasikorn Bank forecasts the baht to trade within a range of 31.60-32.60 baht per US dollar. Kasikorn Research Center identifies key factors to monitor including Thailand's March export figures, the Middle East situation, US-Iran negotiations, global oil prices, and foreign fund flows.
Key US economic data being watched includes March retail sales, pending home sales, consumer sentiment and inflation expectations, and preliminary April PMI data. China's LPR rate setting, Japan's March inflation figures, and preliminary April PMI data from Japan, the Eurozone, and the UK are also important.
The Thai stock index (SET Index) declined on the first trading day after the holiday due to foreign investor selling, notably in the electronics and banking sectors. Despite a 10-day ceasefire agreement between Israel and Lebanon, the tense Middle East situation affected sentiment. On April 17, 2026, the SET Index closed at 1,482.45 points, down 1.62% from the previous week, with an increased average daily trading volume of 69,340.13 million baht. The mai Index slightly increased by 0.39% to 216.85 points.
For the following week, Kasikorn Securities Co., Ltd. forecasts the Thai stock index will have support at 1,470 and 1,450 points, and resistance at 1,495 and 1,510 points. Key factors to monitor include Thai banking sector earnings, March export figures, Middle East developments, and foreign capital flows. Important US economic data includes March retail sales, April manufacturing and services PMI (preliminary), and weekly jobless claims. International data includes China's April LPR, April manufacturing and services PMI for the Eurozone, the UK, and Japan, and March consumer price indices for the UK and Japan.