Bangkok: Amidst the volatility of global capital markets in early June 2026, where many stock markets faced heavy selling pressure, particularly the South Korean stock market which plunged sharply and triggered circuit breakers, the Thai stock market showed remarkable resilience, only slightly declining to around 1,561 points. What are the underlying factors, and what is the direction for the second half of the year? Why has the Thai stock market become a "safe haven"? The main factors pressuring global stock markets currently are concerns about rising interest rates in the US following better-than-expected employment figures, and the correction in overvalued technology and AI stocks. Paiboon Nalintrungkur, Chairman of the Thai Capital Market Business Council, points out that Thai stocks have become a haven for foreign investors because Thailand has a small portfolio of technology stocks, thus avoiding direct impact from sell-offs in this sector. Furthermore, the Thai stock market has consistently underperfor med the global market for three consecutive years, making its valuation relatively inexpensive compared to other countries.
According to Thai News Agency, although the Thai stock index appears to be stabilizing at around 1,500 points, Mr. Paiboon revealed some surprising information: if Delta shares were excluded from the market, the P/E ratio of the Thai stock market would drop to just 12 times. Furthermore, excluding the added value from Delta, the true value of the Thai stock index would be less than 1,300 points. This reflects that most Thai stocks are still very undervalued and have further upside potential.
Regarding the outlook for the second half of the year, Mr. Paiboon believes that reaching a new high of 1,800 points will be difficult, but breaking through 1,600 points and maintaining that level has a high probability. He attributes this to three key supporting factors, or what he calls the "tapholes" of growth. Confidence in the economic team is one factor, as foreign investors are beginning to have hope in the current government, which has brought more technocrats to oversee the economy. Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) is another factor, with Thailand beginning to benefit from the relocation of production bases and the trend of risk diversification, especially in the Data Center and New S-Curve industries.
Additionally, measures to stimulate the capital market such as TISA (Thai Individual Savings Account) and Jump Plus (Value-up Program) are attracting significant attention and scrutiny from foreigners. TISA is a tax incentive measure modeled after Japan's NISA, designed to encourage Thais to invest directly in stocks, while Jump Plus is a value-adding program for listed companies.
However, there are still risk factors that need to be closely monitored, namely, a prolonged conflict in the Middle East that could severely impact oil prices, and the US trade policy (Section 301), which may affect Thai exports if Thailand is perceived as a transit route for goods from China.
The investment strategy for the second half of 2026 focuses on seeking stocks with strong fundamentals, genuine sales growth, and that don't rely solely on cost-cutting. Although global volatility persists, the new government and stock market measures that are beginning to show results offer more positive developments for Thai stocks this year than in recent years.